Loksabha Election 2024: Political parties are busy making political strategies regarding the Lok Sabha elections, 2024. Mainly the fight is between two alliances Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, some parties are walking away from both the alliances and waiting for the right time. Among these, everyone’s eyes are on Bahujan Samaj Party. There is speculation that BSP supremo Mayawati may take some important decision before the elections. However, Mayawati is continuously talking about maintaining distance from both the alliances. She is also calling such speculations a part of the conspiracy of the opposition parties. He has said that BSP will contest the elections alone under any circumstances and will become a strong party.
Reason behind contesting elections alone
Mayawati is constantly trying to ensure that her voters do not get confused about anything, hence she is criticizing both Congress and BJP. His effort is to win as many seats as possible on his own, so that in case of not getting a clear majority after the election results, the importance of his party can increase. However, the way Mayawati is continuously clarifying her position regarding the alliance, many questions are being raised as to why Mayawati is being forced to do this again and again. A leader associated with BSP in Bareilly, on the condition of not making his name public, says that investigation is going on against sister and her brother. They are afraid of the action of the investigating agencies. That is why clarification has to be given again and again for not forming an alliance.
Don’t be confused, she is criticizing both Congress and BJP. His effort is to win as many seats as possible on his own, so that in case of not getting a clear majority after the election results, the importance of his party can increase. However, the way Mayawati is continuously clarifying her position regarding the alliance, many questions are being raised as to why Mayawati is being forced to do this again and again. A leader associated with BSP in Bareilly, on the condition of not making his name public, says that investigation is going on against sister and her brother. They are afraid of the action of the investigating agencies. That is why clarification has to be given again and again for not forming an alliance.
Senior journalist Sanjeev Divedi says that BSP chief Mayawati is an old political leader. Therefore, she does not want her voters to remain under any kind of confusion, which her opposition parties can take advantage of, hence she is constantly clarifying her position. Senior journalist Tariq Saeed says that if Mayawati contests elections together with INDIA, both BSP and INDIA will benefit, but if she fights separately, BSP will suffer more than INDIA. There is also a possibility that BJP will benefit a lot if BSP contests elections separately. Election experts also believe that in the last moments, Mayawati will contest the elections together with INDIA.
Advice to be careful about propaganda
In the meeting held in Lucknow, Mayawati once again said that the party will not go to any camp. He said in the review meeting for the preparations for the Lok Sabha elections that BSP will contest the Lok Sabha elections alone by keeping distance from both the alliances. Mayawati cautioned the leaders from the misleading news being spread regarding the alliance. He said that anti-BSP forces are using false propaganda. Mayawati accepted the attitude of BJP and Congress on public interest and welfare. He said that burning problems like inflation, poverty, unemployment, loss of income, bad roads, law and order, health issues definitely dominate the hearts and minds, but it is too early to say about the possibility of it becoming a serious issue in the Lok Sabha elections.
Political attack on BJP-Congress
The BSP chief said that the attitude of BJP and Congress on issues of public welfare and public interest is almost the same. He said that efforts are on to neutralize the reservation rights given to SC, ST and OBC. In such a situation, reservation should not be allowed to become a reason for removing unemployment. He also expressed concern over economic exploitation, injustice and inequality based on casteism. Mayawati said that unequal intentions and policies will continue in the society and government, till then people will not be able to get the true benefits of reservation. In the meeting, Mayawati also raised questions on the action of bulldozers. He said that punishing the entire family before announcing the punishment of one person is a gross anti-people step. Due to this, normal life is being affected and people’s problems are increasing a lot.
Challenge to save national party status
Talking about the current political situation, the eyes of the leaders of the parties in India including NDA are towards Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Because, Dalit (SC) vote in UP is around 22 percent. This vote was considered the core vote of BSP supremo Mayawati. However, in the UP Assembly elections 2022, BSP got about 12.5 percent votes, due to which only one MLA of BSP, which formed the government with full majority in the 2007 elections, could win. BSP’s vote percentage is continuously decreasing. This vote has started shifting from BJP to SP. But, Congress is also busy in garnering Dalit votes in the Lok Sabha elections 2024. Congress National President Malikarjun Kharge is handling its responsibility.
If BSP contests alone in this Lok Sabha, it is expected to get 5 to 7 percent votes. But the remaining 5 to 7 percent SC votes may join BJP. There is a danger of India’s game getting spoiled due to this. However, BSP faces the biggest loss by contesting elections alone. BSP’s national party status is in danger. BSP’s vote percentage is continuously falling. The lowest number of votes have been received in the UP Assembly elections 2022 since 1993. This reduced to only 12.5 percent. Due to this the party has reached a very bad phase. There are 22 percent Dalits in UP, but the party getting 12.5 percent votes is a clear indication that the party’s own base voter has also moved away from the party.
Vote base started falling after 2007
In UP, BSP formed the government with full majority in 2007. But, after this only one became MLA in the 2022 elections. Less than one percent votes were polled in Delhi MCD elections. The graph of BSP is falling since 2012 UP Assembly elections. In 2017, BSP was reduced to only 19 seats with 22.24 percent votes. However, the vote percentage did not increase in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But, the alliance with SP paid off and the party won 10 Lok Sabha seats. In such a situation, the political path ahead for BSP is very difficult. To save the status of a national party as well as to save the existence of the party, it will be forced to remain in the India alliance. With this, a crisis of representation will arise from the Legislature to the Parliament.
Congress’s plan B if BSP does not come together
Congress is trying to bring BSP together in UP. There is talk of several rounds of talks for this. It is expected that BSP will join the India alliance after December. But, if BSP does not participate, Congress National President Malikarjun Kharge will be fielded as a Dalit face in UP. The possibilities of contesting elections from the safe seats of UP, Barabanki, Mohanlalganj, Ambedkar Nagar, Nagina, or Etawah are being explored.
This is the rule to keep the national party intact
The National Party Rules as per the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment Order, 1968) state that a political party can be recognized as a national party if it has candidates in the Lok Sabha from at least three different states. Wins 2 percent seats. Secures at least 6 percent of the votes polled in Lok Sabha or Assembly elections in at least four or more states. Apart from this, he wins at least four Lok Sabha seats. The Election Commission last amended the rules in 2016 to review national and state party status every 10 years instead of five.
BSP’s strength in Lok Sabha
BSP was founded by Kanshi Ram on 14 April 1984. The political symbol (election symbol) of this party is elephant. BSP had 14 members in the 13th Lok Sabha (1999-2004). This number was 17 in the 14th Lok Sabha (2004-2009) and 21 in the 15th Lok Sabha (2009-2014). After this, BSP did not have a single MP in the 16th Lok Sabha (2014- 2019). After this, BSP got the benefit of alliance with SP in the 17th Lok Sabha (2019). BSP has 10 MPs. This time, BSP is trying hard to win more seats. Therefore, she is focusing on Dalit-backward and minority voters.
Report- Muhammad Sajid, Bareilly