Weather Forecast: India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said that Indian meteorologists have started using artificial intelligence (AI) and ‘machine learning’ to make weather forecasts more accurate. Speaking to news agency PTI, Mohapatra said that in the next few years, emerging technologies will also complement numerical weather forecasting models, which are currently widely used for weather forecasting. He said that the Meteorological Department is expanding the observation system to forecast the weather at the Panchayat level or in an area more than 10 square kilometers.
Use of AI has started in a limited way – IMD
Mohapatra said the IMD has deployed a network of 39 Doppler weather radars, which covers 85 per cent of the country’s landmass and provides hourly forecasts for major cities. The IMD chief said that we have started using artificial intelligence in a limited way, but within the next five years, AI will significantly improve our models and techniques. Mahapatra said that IMD has digitalized the country’s weather records since 1901 and through this, artificial intelligence can be used to analyze and get information about weather patterns. He said artificial intelligence models are data science models that do not delve into the physics of weather-related phenomena, but instead use past data to provide information that can be used to make better predictions.
Expert group has been formed – IMD
Mohapatra said that expert groups have been formed in the Ministry of Earth Sciences and IMD to use artificial intelligence. According to the IMD chief, both artificial intelligence and numerical forecasting models will complement each other and work together to improve the accuracy of forecasts and neither can replace the other. On the need to provide weather forecasts at the local level, Mohapatra acknowledged the challenges of the IMD in providing village-level forecasts for specific hazards. He said, “Our goal is to provide forecasts at the panchayat or village level… to provide weather information for area-specific needs in agriculture, health, urban planning, hydrology and environment. The IMD chief stressed the importance of data-based decision making in the era of easily available information.
Mohapatra said that incorporating AI and ‘machine learning’ allows us to use past data to gain valuable insights and improve forecast accuracy without relying on traditional physics-based models. ‘Machine Learning’ (ML) is a branch of AI and computer science, which focuses on the use of data. Regarding the impact of climate change on weather forecasting, the IMD chief mentioned meteorological phenomena such as mid-level convective cloud cover due to extreme heat, which is affecting local communities. He said that to deal with this, IMD has deployed Doppler weather radars, which cover 85 percent of the country. Mohapatra said that this advanced radar data with a resolution of 350 meters per pixel is capable of detecting convective clouds, which significantly increases the accuracy of forecasting for extreme events like heavy rainfall and cyclones.
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