Lucknow: Before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the board has been set for the political battle of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) vs India National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in UP. Its script was ready when Dara Singh Chauhan left Samajwadi Party and joined BJP.
SP fielded former MLA Sudhakar Singh
After this he resigned from Ghosi assembly seat of Mau district. Now the party has announced to make him a candidate in the by-election, while former SP MLA Sudhakar Singh is in the fray. In the 2022 elections, SP had cut the ticket of Sudhakar Singh for Dara Singh Chauhan, who came from BJP to SP. In such a situation, once again with the announcement of the candidates for the by-elections, the political temperature has risen. The result of Ghosi by-election is very important for BJP and SP.
In this political battle of UP, once again the contest will be seen between the ruling party and the opposition. BSP supremo Mayawati may have kept away from the alliance of the opposition. But, there is no possibility of fielding a party candidate in his by-election. In this way, the political fight in the state will be between INDIA vs NDA.
Claims of victory of BJP and SP
BJP strategists claim that the winning streak of Dara Singh Chauhan will continue on the Ghosi assembly seat and this time he will be able to make lotus blossom from here, while on the other hand SP feels that its political strategy will be successful. The manner in which Dara Singh Chauhan has suddenly changed sides without any reason has not sent a good message to the public and once again the victory of SP candidate Sudhakar Singh is certain from here.
Sudhakar Singh has been MLA twice
SP candidate Sudhakar Singh has been an MLA twice before. He became MLA from Nathupur assembly seat in the year 1996. After delimitation, the name of this seat was changed to Ghosi. Sudhakar Singh won from here in 2012 elections also. In the year 2017 elections, SP gave ticket to Sudhakar Singh once again. But, then BJP candidate Fagu Singh Chauhan defeated him. Sudhakar Singh was defeated in the by-election held on this seat in the year 2020.
In the 2022 elections, the party contested the then cabinet minister Dara Singh Chauhan, who left the BJP and joined the SP, from here and won. Recently Dara Singh Chauhan resigned from his assembly membership and joined BJP.
SP in fray without Dara Singh Chauhan and OP Rajbhar
If we look at the political equation on the Ghosi assembly seat, the SP has a challenge to retain its hold on this seat. The number of Rajbhar voters is more in this assembly constituency. Last time in 2022, Subhaspa President Omprakash Rajbhar was with SP. This time he has joined NDA. In such a situation, the circumstances have changed.
The by-election is very important for both India and NDA
Voters of nonia caste of Dara Singh Chauhan are also considered to be in a decisive role here. SP is trying to prove itself strong from here despite being left with Dara Singh Chauhan and Omprakash Rajbhar, so that it can prove itself to be a strong pillar in the INDIA vs NDA fight before the Lok Sabha elections. Through this, she will be able to further strengthen the claim of proving herself number one in UP among constituent parties of INDIA.
On the other hand, this seat is also a matter of prestige for the BJP. The way in which it is claiming to win all the seats in UP under Mission 80 in the Lok Sabha elections, it is necessary that its candidate should defeat the opposition candidate by a huge margin in the by-elections. Through this, she will be able to claim her strength and strength in Purvanchal. In such a situation, the battle of Ghosi by-election is very important for both INDIA vs NDA.
Victory and defeat are important for the equation of 2024
If Dara Singh Chauhan succeeds in repeating the charisma of 2022, then it is certain that he will become a minister in the Yogi government. On the other hand, if he cannot win the election, then BJP’s plan in Purvanchal may fail. Because, the effect and message of this result will go till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Seeing the opportunity, Dara Singh Chauhan has been connecting and breaking the relationship.
If we look at the political history of Dara Singh Chauhan, from 1996 to 2022, Dara Singh Chauhan has been connecting and breaking relations with BSP to SP and BJP, seeing time and opportunity. This is the first time that after leaving the hands of any party, they again joined hands so soon. Just before the 2022 elections, Dara Chauhan joined the SP after parting ways with the BJP. However, Akhilesh’s government could not be formed, so he immediately changed tactics and returned to the BJP.
For the first time re-contesting elections on a party ticket
Meanwhile, the Mau district of Purvanchal and the election season here is not a new thing for Dara Singh Chauhan. For the first time in 2009, he has won the election from Ghosi Lok Sabha seat of Mau district on BSP ticket. In 2017, he became a minister in the previous Yogi government after winning the assembly elections from the neighboring Madhuban assembly seat of Ghosi on a BJP ticket. Then in 2022, he won from Ghosi assembly on SP ticket. This will be the first time that he will contest the assembly elections in Mau district again on the ticket of any party.
Ghoshi’s political scenario changed in just one year
Ghosi’s constituency in front of Dara Singh Chauhan is the same, but the challenge has completely changed. In 2022, he won on SP ticket by defeating BJP’s Vijay Rajbhar by 22 thousand votes, but, this time he will have to defeat SP on BJP ticket.
SP’s dominance in four assembly seats of Mau district
If we talk about Mau district, the SP is still dominating the four assembly seats here. Ghosi and Mohammadabad Gohna seats came in SP’s account in 2022. Mau Sadar seat was won by Abbas Ansari, son of Bahubali Mukhtar Ansari on Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) ticket. The BJP had won the Madhuban assembly seat. Therefore, it will be a big responsibility on Dara Singh Chauhan to win the trust of the people by winning the Ghosi by-election and remain trustworthy for the BJP as well.
Rajbhar voters can play a big game
Talking about the Ghosi assembly seat, the maximum number of votes are of Muslims here. Shias are 45 and Sunni are 35 thousand i.e. total 80 thousand. On the second number are Mallah voters with the number of 70 thousand. Dalits come on the third number, whose votes are about 60 thousand. The fraternity from which Dara Singh Chauhan comes, he is a Nonia Chauhan voter. Their number is 45 thousand. Apart from this, BJP has been getting Rajbhar votes here. That’s why 35 thousand Rajbhar voters can play a big game.
Political battle is not easy
However, the battle of Dara Singh Chauhan will not be so easy. His biggest challenge will be to firmly counter the SP’s Yadav-Muslim equation. The votes of these two fraternities are almost 100 percent. In such a situation, Dara Singh Chauhan would need 1.25 lakh votes in any case to win. Their game can be made only when the BSP fields a Muslim candidate.
These are political equations
There are more than four and a half lakh voters in Ghosi assembly seat. There are about 2.40 lakh male and more than 2 lakh female voters. The voters of Nonia Chauhan community, who are among the backward, cast their votes outright and show complete loyalty to the caste candidate. Be it Dara Singh Chauhan or the candidate of SP, BSP. Chauhan, Rajbhar, Yadav, Muslim candidates have become almost guaranteed to win the seat.
This is how Dara Singh Chauhan won in 2022
If you look at the 2022 election results on Ghosi assembly seat, then Dara Singh Chauhan won by getting 108430 votes. But, the BJP followed him for a long time. Wasim Iqbal of BSP was at number three with 54 thousand votes. If Muslim voters go to SP’s side, then it can be difficult for Dara or BJP. Therefore, this time both Dara Singh Chauhan and BJP will have to create such a game, in which Dara wins like last time, but SP loses.
Victory will be very important for political future
Nonia Chauhan voters keep their interference at every level from farming to business in Mau district. Fagu Chauhan had achieved political heights from Lok Dal to Janata Party and then to BJP on the basis of Chauhan voters. After him, Dara Singh Chauhan tried his political luck keeping the Chauhan fraternity at the head.
Chauhan voters of Mau district and traditional voters of BJP including SP, BSP have given him victory. But, this time his victory will be the most special. Because, this victory will ensure his ministerial seat in the Yogi government, while in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it will work to increase some seats in Purvanchal in the BJP’s account.
Voting will be held on 7 September
The election has been announced due to the resignation of Dara Singh Chauhan, SP MLA from Ghosi assembly seat. According to the Election Commission, nomination papers can be filed till August 17. The nomination papers will be scrutinized on August 18. Candidates can withdraw their nomination till August 21. Voting is to be held on 5 September. Elections are to be held here on 5 September.