India GDP Forecast: The whole world is struggling with global economic problems. However, India’s economy is continuously becoming stronger. Others see India as a global economic trigger. This is the reason why many big foreign companies have expanded their business in India. Meanwhile, former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog Arvind Panagariya has made a big claim. He said that India will become the world’s third largest economy by 2026 and its GDP will reach US $ 5,000 billion that year. Later in 2027, the size of the economy will be more than 5,500 billion dollars. He said in the 18th CD Deshmukh Memorial Lecture that it is not possible that the GDP of Germany or Japan will cross the $5 trillion mark in the coming three years. In his lecture titled ‘India at 125: Reclaiming the Lost Glory and Returning the Global Economy to its Old Normal’, he said that Japan needs to reach US$ 5,030 billion in 2027 from the level of US$ 4,200 billion in 2022. For this, it will have to increase at the rate of 3.5 percent.
What is the mathematics of India’s GDP?
Arvind Panagariya said that with a growth rate of four percent, Germany’s GDP will increase from US $ 4,400 billion in 2023 to US $ 4,900 billion in 2026 and US $ 5,100 billion in 2027. Given these projections, how soon can Indian GDP surpass the GDP of these two countries? That is the question.” India has currently appreciated the value of the dollar at an annual average rate of 10.22 percent. At this rate, India’s GDP will reach US$ 5,000 billion in 2026 and US$ 5,500 in 2027. He estimated that there are great possibilities that India will become the third economy of the world by the end of 2026. India should take necessary steps to make its economic units bigger. Chintaman Dwarkanath Deshmukh was the first Indian Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. His tenure lasted from 1943 to 1949.
What is the situation in India?
According to the data released by the government in December 2023, the country’s economic growth rate stood at 7.6 percent in the July-September quarter of the current financial year with better performance of manufacturing, mining and service sectors. It was 6.2 percent in the same quarter a year ago. This information was given in the official figures released on Thursday. With this, India remains the country achieving the fastest economic growth rate among the major economies of the world. China’s GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate stood at 4.9 percent in this July-September quarter. GDP refers to the total value of goods and services produced in the country in a given period. According to the data of the National Statistical Office (NSO), the gross value added (GVA) growth rate in the agriculture sector was 1.2 percent which was 2.5 percent in the July-September quarter of 2022-23. The GVA growth rate in the manufacturing sector stood at 13.9 percent in the second quarter of the current financial year, whereas it had declined by 3.8 percent in the same quarter a year ago. GVA growth rate in financial, real estate and professional services stood at six percent, which was 7.1 percent in the same quarter a year ago. According to the data, GVA in mining and quarrying increased by 10 percent in the quarter under review, whereas it had declined by 0.1 percent a year ago. The growth rate of electricity, gas, water supply and other people-centric services increased from 6.1 percent to 10.1 percent. The growth rate of the construction sector increased to 13.3 percent in the second quarter. A year ago, in the same quarter of 2022-23, it was 5.7 percent.
Growth rate was 7.8 in June quarter
During the April-June quarter of the current financial year, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate remained at 7.8 percent. NSO said in a statement that real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated to reach Rs 41.74 lakh crore in Q2 2023-24, while it will reach Rs 38.78 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23. Was. In this way, it is estimated to increase by 7.6 percent, whereas in the second quarter of 2022-23 this figure was 6.2 percent. Similarly, GDP at current prices is estimated to be Rs 71.66 lakh crore in the second quarter of 2023-24, while this figure was Rs 65.67 lakh crore in the second quarter of 2022-23. Thus, the GDP growth rate at current prices shows an increase of 9.1 percent in the second quarter of the current financial year, whereas this figure was 17.2 percent in the second quarter of 2022-23.
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